Sensitivity Analysis of Mathematical Model of Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) Transmission

26 July 2020 11:53:44 Dibaca : 32 Kategori : Publikasi Ilmiah

Coronavirus Disease (henceforth, COVID-19) has shocked many thanks to its very rapid spread. Firstly, identified to occur in Wuhan city of China, the disease has shortly become one of the main talking points as it reached the whole world and took thousands of death tolls in a very short period. The disease somewhat instigates all parties to conduct active measures in finding options to the best treatments and anticipatory means to prevent damage on a much wider scale. From a mathematical perspective, the concern is closely related to the implementation of mathematical models to identify potential solutions.

Mathematical modeling is one of the key tools in epidemic preparation, including the COVID-19 pandemic. The system allows one to comprehend and identify the correlation between COVID-19 spread and several epidemiology parameters, conduct preparatory measures for future planning, and implement best practices of pandemic treatment. Previous studies, albeit little in number, have begun to address this problem and design mathematical model for COVID-19 transmission [1][2][3][4]. The model involved accurate and effective public health interventions. On top of that, a study comparedbetween the outbreaks of current COVID-19 and previous MERS disease that spread in Middle Eastern countries and Korea [5]. Other studies designed mathematical models that predict COVID-19 cases in different countries [6][7].

Several models proposed in previous studies have discussed that the virus started from an unknown source and eventually began to spread to the human population. The virus source, further referred to as reservoir variable, is suspected to be the place of first infection-to-human case. The present study introduces a different approach to mathematical modeling to the virus transmission by also involving the epidemiology parameters; a variable that is not discussed in previous studies. Previous models have assumed that the virus transmission only occurs in interactions between individuals that have contracted the virus; differing from that, this article takes into consideration transmission cases caused by susceptible individuals and exposed individuals. It views the importance of involving such parameters, considering the number of infections that occurred in the interaction between exposed individuals yet to be detected as infected. Moreover, the model lays its emphasis on the pattern of transmission between humans after the virus has become epidemic or pandemic, therefore, disregarding the reservoir variable. The model thus overlooks the process of first human infection and focuses on how the virus has spread within human-to-human interactions. In addition to that, the model employs new parameters representing death cases of COVID-19, pertaining to the fact that the virus has taken numbers of the death tolls. The model also takes into account cases of quarantined individuals that were identified to be exposed to the virus.

The following section elaborates on the construction of mathematical models in this study. Further, the article presents the research results in the form of model analysis. Within this section, the study focuses on the construction of basic reproductive number and sensitivity analysis to identify which parameter is the most sensitive to the change in basic reproductive number value. Finally, the last section proposes several conclusions to the research findings and discussion.

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